Casita and Scamp Used Sales Data - Fiberglass RV



Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 07-09-2019, 08:17 PM   #1
Senior Member
 
Name: Justus
Trailer: Hymer Touring GT
Illinois
Posts: 152
Casita and Scamp Used Sales Data

Hello everyone. A few months ago I wrapped up a statistics class. The class required a final project using student-generated data. I chose to look at sales info from used Casitas and Scamps. I collected data from 73 Scamp 16 ads and 233 Casita 16/17 ads entirely from fiberglass-rv-4sale.com because that was the easiest way to do it.

Maybe someone will find it useful, so I've uploaded the project to my Google Drive. I've included the spreadsheet where I did all my calculations as well as the writeup (yawn): https://drive.google.com/open?id=1yP...erQrLi0OlbLdvS

For the instant gratification types, trailers roughly followed these models:

Scamp 16: y = 8.0334x² - 597.59x + 17738 (R² = 0.6717)
Casita 17: y = 10.407x² - 764.92x + 20161 (R² = 0.7182)
Casita 16: y = 12.532x² - 831.04x + 20199 (R² = 0.7987)

Where y is the estimated asking price, and x is the age in years.

Bear in mind that this accounts for no options or trailer condition (although I threw out trailers that were advertised as gut-and-restore or unusable). It models a general trend among all trailers of the given brand and size.

There's more data manipulation in the report but my gut feeling is that most people who care about this type of data are looking for a price check.

And I do realize that by using a polynomial equation that if you put in an old enough trailer age, the price will be infinite. It was the best fit for the data range I had. For ages 20 and up, they are pretty darn accurate. Nobody's perfect!
__________________

Justus C is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-09-2019, 09:37 PM   #2
Member
 
OCJohn's Avatar
 
Name: John
Trailer: Hymer
California
Posts: 62
Registry
Did you get an A?
__________________

OCJohn is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 06:58 AM   #3
Senior Member
 
Name: Justus
Trailer: Hymer Touring GT
Illinois
Posts: 152
Quote:
Originally Posted by OCJohn View Post
Did you get an A?
Yes!
Justus C is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 10:48 AM   #4
Senior Member
 
Name: Darral
Trailer: Scamp Standard 13' 2010
Tennessee
Posts: 1,631
I would have died from boredom having to create that. Thank God for people He's provided to do such stuff so I can sit back and enjoy life!
Darral T. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 11:04 AM   #5
Junior Member
 
Name: Steven
Trailer: Rockwood
Kentucky
Posts: 2
Used sales data

Just cut to the chase- I hated Algebra! In plain English, what were your findings?
salmiddleton is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 11:07 AM   #6
Senior Member
 
Name: Henry
Trailer: BigFoot
Tennessee
Posts: 756
I have a 2013 Casita Spirit Deluxe I expect to put on the market after this camping season. According to your formula, an asking price of $15,946.13 would be reasonable.

In my case I would add $2k for a gas Honda eu3000is generator with remote, and many other modifications, with a value of say $1k.

So an asking price of $18,946 should be about right. Are my calculations correct, based on your formula?
Rzrbrn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 12:58 PM   #7
Junior Member
 
Name: David
Trailer: Oliver
Utah
Posts: 16
Hi Justus,

As an academic (but not a statistician) I really liked your regression analysis and the strong correlation on price vs age.

I have several questions.

Could you do a similar regression analysis on price vs distance from the factory? I would expect that Casitas far from Rice TX would have a higher resale value.

Could you determine how much the absence of a bathroom affects the price? I see you have less than a dozen trailers without a bathroom, and that could be too small of a sample size.

I have often wondered how many of each brand of fiberglass trailer have been sold are on the road. I recently took the data from the Tow Vehicle & Trailer Combos thread (n = 199) and found 24% were Scamps and 18% were Casitas. Tongue in cheek, I posted that "Of course, it is possible that Scamp owners are simply more likely to respond to a survey like this..."
Tow Vehicle & Trailer combos - POST INFO

Quote:
Originally Posted by Justus C View Post
I collected data from 73 Scamp 16 ads and 233 Casita 16/17 ads entirely from fiberglass-rv-4sale.com because that was the easiest way to do it.
However, you found three times as many ads for Casita as for Scamps. Why the difference?

Thanks.
__________________
David from Salt Lake City, UT
Oliver Elite II Trailer
Audi Q7 Tow Vehicle
DavidJS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 02:15 PM   #8
Senior Member
 
Name: Justus
Trailer: Hymer Touring GT
Illinois
Posts: 152
Quote:
Originally Posted by salmiddleton View Post
Just cut to the chase- I hated Algebra! In plain English, what were your findings?
I hate algebra too but in this case the calculator (and the computer) did most of the legwork. The back cover edition is: No significant different in depreciation; no correlation between location and price; most trailers have bathrooms; distance from the factory has some effect on price (not a direct positive correlation); most trailers sleep three; at least 85% sleep 2 to 4; at least 5% of used Casitas and Scamps sold are 30 years old or more; and the equations I came up with were useful.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rzrbrn View Post
I have a 2013 Casita Spirit Deluxe I expect to put on the market after this camping season. According to your formula, an asking price of $15,946.13 would be reasonable.

In my case I would add $2k for a gas Honda eu3000is generator with remote, and many other modifications, with a value of say $1k.

So an asking price of $18,946 should be about right. Are my calculations correct, based on your formula?
I would use the formulas for entertainment purposes only. Although they give a ballpark price, that is not necessarily what you could or should sell/buy at. A thing is worth whatever someone will pay for it.

One thing I just lost the motivation to do was account for seasonal variation in price. For example, right now, at the height of camping season, trailers may sell for a little more than in September. I can check FGRV4Sale and see that a 2013 Liberty Deluxe sold recently for $17,300. But if I go back to January, I can find a 2013 Spirit Deluxe that sold for $16,250, and in March one that sold on eBay for $14,500. You can filter my spreadsheet results to see only 2013 Casitas, and even further to see only 2013 Casita Spirit Deluxe 17s if you wish.

And as mentioned, I had some other shortcomings. The goal of the project was to demonstrate an understanding of various hypothesis tests and basic statistics, but a convenient side effect was that I could generate price models.
Justus C is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 02:26 PM   #9
Senior Member
 
Name: Justus
Trailer: Hymer Touring GT
Illinois
Posts: 152
Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidJS View Post
Hi Justus,

As an academic (but not a statistician) I really liked your regression analysis and the strong correlation on price vs age.

I have several questions.

Could you do a similar regression analysis on price vs distance from the factory? I would expect that Casitas far from Rice TX would have a higher resale value.

Could you determine how much the absence of a bathroom affects the price? I see you have less than a dozen trailers without a bathroom, and that could be too small of a sample size.

I have often wondered how many of each brand of fiberglass trailer have been sold are on the road. I recently took the data from the Tow Vehicle & Trailer Combos thread (n = 199) and found 24% were Scamps and 18% were Casitas. Tongue in cheek, I posted that "Of course, it is possible that Scamp owners are simply more likely to respond to a survey like this..."
Tow Vehicle & Trailer combos - POST INFO



However, you found three times as many ads for Casita as for Scamps. Why the difference?

Thanks.
David, bear in mind that I only used one source for sales data. It could be that FGRV4Sale is just way more popular with Casita owners. It could be that Casitas change hands more often than Scamps. It could be, as you said, that Scamp owners are more likely to respond to such a survey. It could be that there is a bias of Scamp owners on this site. The universe holds many mysteries! I believe that Scamp production numbers are significantly lower than Casita numbers, though, so I would expect to see more Casita sold on the used market.

I was also curious about the bathroom, but as you noted, the sample of non-bathroom models was tiny. If there was enough data, you could run a 2 Sample T-Test where the variable is the difference between average price with and without a bathroom.

The distance data was difficult to work with. I really wanted to generate a heat map of price by actual location but not only was this beyond the scope of the project--I couldn't even figure out where to start! On page 11 of the writeup I categorized distances and ran a chi-square test, then built a nearly-impossible-to-read line graph. It's shows a correlation, but not what you might expect.
Justus C is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2019, 08:14 PM   #10
Junior Member
 
Name: MJ
Trailer: Park Liner
GA
Posts: 16
No Park Liner data collated? Where are all these folks? Am I all alone? ...Hello? ... Is anyone there? (I hear crickets)
Tinkerbelle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2019, 08:42 AM   #11
Senior Member
 
Jon in AZ's Avatar
 
Name: Jon
Trailer: 2008 Scamp 13 S1
Arizona
Posts: 7,847
Registry
Casita and Scamp Used Sales Data

@ Tinkerbelle: There wouldn’t be enough Parkliner sales data over enough years to get a reliable mathematical model. (Chirp, chirp...)

Good work, Justus! Fun project. One bone to pick... why not Scamp 13’s? They’re Scamp’s most popular model.
Jon in AZ is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2019, 11:01 AM   #12
Senior Member
 
Civilguy's Avatar
 
Name: Mike
Trailer: Escape 21 & Jeep GC 5.7 (Previous 2012 Casita FD17 & 2010 Audi Q5)
Puget Sound, WA
Posts: 1,056
Registry
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rzrbrn View Post
I have a 2013 Casita Spirit Deluxe I expect to put on the market after this camping season. According to your formula, an asking price of $15,946.13 would be reasonable.

In my case I would add $2k for a gas Honda eu3000is generator with remote, and many other modifications, with a value of say $1k.

So an asking price of $18,946 should be about right. Are my calculations correct, based on your formula?
For what it may be worth, this was compiled in August of 2017 based on data from the same site. It includes 86 Casita Deluxe trailers. Seven are 16 ft, the rest are 17 ft. They are a mix of 49 Spirit, 18 Freedom, 13 Liberty, 4 Independence and 2 uncertain.
Attached Thumbnails
Casita Sale Prices.jpg  
__________________
~ "This post is a natural product. Slight variations in spelling and grammar enhance its individual character and beauty and are in no way to be considered flaws or defects." ~
Civilguy is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2019, 11:04 AM   #13
Senior Member
 
Civilguy's Avatar
 
Name: Mike
Trailer: Escape 21 & Jeep GC 5.7 (Previous 2012 Casita FD17 & 2010 Audi Q5)
Puget Sound, WA
Posts: 1,056
Registry
Quote:
Originally Posted by Justus C View Post
And I do realize that by using a polynomial equation that if you put in an old enough trailer age, the price will be infinite. It was the best fit for the data range I had. For ages 20 and up, they are pretty darn accurate. Nobody's perfect!
__________________
~ "This post is a natural product. Slight variations in spelling and grammar enhance its individual character and beauty and are in no way to be considered flaws or defects." ~
Civilguy is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2019, 01:02 PM   #14
Senior Member
 
Name: Justus
Trailer: Hymer Touring GT
Illinois
Posts: 152
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon in AZ View Post
Good work, Justus! Fun project. One bone to pick... why not Scamp 13’s? They’re Scamp’s most popular model.
It's quite simple: I would never consider buying a 13' Scamp! But I did recently recommend it to my parents as an ideal sub-2000 lbs full featured trailer.

I wanted two data sets to do all of the hypothesis testing required in the paper. The Scamp 16/Casita 16/17 pairing was the most convenient.
__________________

Justus C is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
casita, scamp


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
2014 16' Scamp Data Jallen Hi, I am.... 15 12-08-2014 08:49 AM

» Upcoming Events
No events scheduled in
the next 465 days.
» Featured Campgrounds

Reviews provided by


Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:57 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.