NM State Parks Closing

[Yvimij]

Originally Posted by Raspy

I'm not about to give a politician a pass simply because they are doing what is typical of politicians. That is completely illogical. And when they go out of their way to belittle scientists, and science, and then can't deal with what they were clearly warned about, by those same scientists, we have a problem. We, meaning the rest of the public. Ultimately, the blame falls on us for putting them in charge. Making excuses for them is not helpful. We need straight talk and a coordinated effort based on facts.

No, you are not giving a pass to the politicians. You are giving the pass to yourself. By expecting "Science" to provide a simple solution to a complex problem. You are absolving only yourself.

By the way, I have not seen a single politician "go out of their way to belittle scientists and science". That is simply poppycock! Au contraire, they are sucking up to "science" to avoid shouldering any blame that may rightfully be their own.

Disaster Recovery professionals (not scientists) have seen this coming for at least the last 15 years. If you look back through the literature you will find many articles and discussions of exactly what we are seeing now. Scientists are not the ones who have been ringing the warning bells. That is not the job of science. The politicians have been warned well in advance but they chose other priorities. Business leaders have been warned too, but they also chose other priorities. The greatest failure so far in this particular event has been an intelligence-gathering failure, not a failure to pay attention to "Science". The only role that "science" plays in this is to research and find a cure. It will be up to other segments to handle things from there.

[Glenn Baglo]

OK Jim, thanks.

[ShelbyM]

Originally Posted by Glenn Baglo

OK Jim, thanks.

Agreed.

[Mike Magee]

It's impossible to plan for every single eventuality. In the end the businesses, governments, and individuals alike all 'play the odds.'

[Raspy]

Originally Posted by jim_ivy

No, you are not giving a pass to the politicians. You are giving the pass to yourself. By expecting "Science" to provide a simple solution to a complex problem. You are absolving only yourself.

By the way, I have not seen a single politician "go out of their way to belittle scientists and science". That is simply poppycock! Au contraire, they are sucking up to "science" to avoid shouldering any blame that may rightfully be their own.

Well, where do I begin?

Actually, I have been speaking as clearly and loudly as possible about using facts and science instead of opinion and face saving "inaccuracies", (to put it mildly).

If you haven't seen anyone belittle science, I'm afraid you have not been paying even the slightest bit of attention. Please, if you want examples, look at the commentary that is plastered all over the place and broadcast every day. Somehow you seem to have missed the intelligence gathering and warnings given that were given, but not listened to.

Science can be inaccurate, but it is far better than non-science, heresay, opinion, personal bias, moonbeams, or political party. It's real until we find out it's not, and then it gets updated. It represents the best that well-educated folks can do when it comes to things like vaccine development, treatments, etc. Whereas personal bias, is extremely stubborn and unrelated to reality, or is based on misleading data designed to confuse. Science pays no attention to personal agendas.

This whole conversation displays clearly, how we, as a whole, can be our own worst enemy. And why it is so hard to make progress, or in this case even save lives. It shows how two people can look at the same thing and see the opposite. And how we are willing to make excuses for those misleading us, even at our own peril. It's astonishing, and it's sad. It's human nature. Sometimes it seems surprising we're not still living in caves. But there's still time for that, as we work diligently to destroy ourselves.

[ShelbyM]

Unfortunately peoples fears and prejudices continue to block rational thought. Good effort Raspy but falling on deaf ears.

[ZachO]

If disaster recovery professionals aren't basing their whole approach on science and the scientific method, I don't know what they're basing it on. You seem to be making arbitrary distinctions, putting things in neat little boxes that they clearly don't fit in. The whole "stay in your lane" argument was never valid in this sense.

[V'sGlassSleeper]

Thank you, Raspy and other forum members for cogently trying to explain why we all have the responsibility to do our best to slow down the spread of this deadly virus by practicing social distancing. Social distancing does not mean acting like we're on vacation and hanging out with the in-laws. It does not mean chatting with our neighbors in the street or letting our kids go play with all the other neighborhood kids. It's so sad to see people crowded on the local hiking trails and beaches - willfully ignoring this pandemic. To those of you who are just going about life as usual, how will you feel if you or someone you love or someone else gets violently ill or dies because you didn't think that this was anything to be that concerned about? Too many of us have heard first-hand from brave medical professional friends and family on the front lines. If you're still skeptical after all the news from Italy, New York and Louisiana, then you probably will scoff also at the following article, which is a detailed account from a respiratory technician in Louisiana, where no one took the COVID-19 threat seriously, so they went ahead with their New Orleans Mardi Gras parade earlier this month, with thousands of people attending from all over the world: https://www.propublica.org/article/a...young-patients

My prayer is that those of you who don't want to believe that this is a long-term pandemic will go ahead and practice social distancing just "in case" you are mistaken, just "in case" the news about the skyrocketing rates of infection and much higher mortality rates are true. The adage "better safe than sorry" definitely applies in this instance. Those of you waxing nostalgic about all the other crises and disasters that you or your grandmother lived through just fine must be forgetting to remember all of those who did not make it through those times. Crises like these require us to change our lifestyles - in this case, until a vaccine is readily available to everyone in the U.S. Talk is cheap - we show how much we value our country, our fellow citizens of ALL political persuasions and backgrounds, our children and future generations by how we conduct ourselves now. Please give a sh%t and, even if you think it's just a bunch of hype, do it "just in case" you're wrong. Thank you and blessings to all.

[Paul O.]

Originally Posted by Glenn Baglo

One issue is that if the population follows the science-based advice, and nothing happens, because they followed that advice, they say, "see, it was nothing". I don't know what can be done about that.

Nothing. I guess it is part of life.



Only after it is all done and over, we may (or not) be able to judge whether we did the right thing and whether the risks we took were reasonable and the precautions we took were helpful.



Viruses will mutate. In the meantime, wash hands, eat healthy, do not go with crowds and shop for only what you need. Only healthy people can help those in need. Like the airplane oxygen mask: put it on yourself and then help others, if needed.

[ZachO]

In true "taking one for the team" style, I've heard multiple healthcare professionals and epidemiologists say things like "when this ends, if people wonder what all the fuss was about and think we overreacted, then we did our jobs right".

Basically there are all kinds of behind-the-scenes actions being taken all the time, and that's often the reason diseases don't get away from us.

People will spin this any way they want. For those (seemingly few) out there who are happy to do a competent job and not get credit for it (rather than do an incompetent job and brag about how great they're doing), that's fine. As long as they saved lives, they willing to see people criticize them for overreacting, even though they know they saved lives through their reaction.

[Raspy]

Originally Posted by ZachO

In true "taking one for the team" style, I've heard multiple healthcare professionals and epidemiologists say things like "when this ends, if people wonder what all the fuss was about and think we overreacted, then we did our jobs right".

Basically there are all kinds of behind-the-scenes actions being taken all the time, and that's often the reason diseases don't get away from us.

People will spin this any way they want. For those (seemingly few) out there who are happy to do a competent job and not get credit for it (rather than do an incompetent job and brag about how great they're doing), that's fine. As long as they saved lives, they willing to see people criticize them for overreacting, even though they know they saved lives through their reaction.

Excellent post Zach.

If the medical professionals are successful, members of the public will use it as evidence that we all over reacted. I just have to laugh.

I wouldn't have it any other way, but the problems inherent in a free and very successful democratic society, sometimes become very evident and dangerous.

"A Republic, if you can keep it", has never sounded more relevant.

[steve dunham]

Thanks Raspy , my wife and I are not qualified to give medical advice so we have decided to listen to the medical professionals that are qualified .
When we are ill we don’t go to the internet or political pundits for our medical advice
Our state is under a shelter in place order and we will comply .
If the lockdown is a mistake , it’s a mistake we can
live with .
I taught school for 35 years and I learned one thing
You can’t teach people who refuse to learn or already
know all the answers .

[Mike Magee]

Obviously the popular sentiment is the only allowed sentiment. Enjoy yourselves.

[Paul O.]

Originally Posted by steve dunham

Thanks Raspy , my wife and I are not qualified to give medical advice so we have decided to listen to the medical professionals that are qualified .
When we are ill we don’t go to the internet or political pundits for our medical advice
Our state is under a shelter in place order and we will comply .
If the lockdown is a mistake , it’s a mistake we can
live with .
I taught school for 35 years and I learned one thing
You can’t teach people who refuse to learn or think they already
know all the answers .

Good post, I would add only two words: think they. Because in most cases they do not.

[Mike Magee]

The UK no longer thinks Covid-19 is a high-consequence infectious disease.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-con...-diseases-hcid




An Oxford meta-analysis has estimated the Infection Fatality Rate at 0.2% or less. This estimate includes those who normally are asymptomatic. (scroll 2/3 of the way down on the linked page)
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/


Still think I'm crazy to say we've overreacted?

[steve dunham]

Originally Posted by Mike Magee

The UK no longer thinks Covid-19 is a high-consequence infectious disease.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-con...-diseases-hcid

Attachment 133639


An Oxford meta-analysis has estimated the Infection Fatality Rate at 0.2%. This estimate includes those who normally are asymptomatic. (scroll 2/3 of the way down on the linked page)
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/


Still think I'm crazy to say we've overreacted?

Mike , I admire your tenacity / stubbornness but my answer to your question is still YES
I would suggest that everyone read the whole article including the “acknowledgement” and not jump to a conclusion based on the hand picked portion that was posted
If one’s only goal is to be mathematically correct then problem solved .
My main goal and hope is that as many people as possible are alive to celebrate the end of this ordeal .

Human life is more than a mathematical statistic !

[Glenn Baglo]

"The UK no longer thinks Covid-19 is a high-consequence infectious disease."


26 people in New York died in a two hour period today. I wonder what they think of that quote?

[Mike Magee]

Originally Posted by Glenn Baglo

"The UK no longer thinks Covid-19 is a high-consequence infectious disease."


26 people in New York died in a two hour period today. I wonder what they think of that quote?

They are beyond caring about it.


You're looking at a little detail. No surprise. Not everyone is capable of seeing the big picture.

[Raspy]

Originally Posted by Mike Magee

Not everyone is capable of seeing the big picture.

I certainly agree with you there. Just out of curiosity though, how many cases would it take for you to see that bigger picture? If there is such a number, it won't take very long to get there, as the rise rate has now gone nearly vertical.

We now have over 74,000 cases, the most in the world, and the number is exponentially increasing. Plus, we are supposed to end the social distancing on Easter, all go to church and get back to normal.

How many cases would you consider serious, and not just a hoax? Have you been successful in convincing everyone this is no big deal?

Take care of yourself, and help others do the same. Here's a link to another denier that didn't fare very well after trying to convince everyone it was just a hoax:

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/chr...ie-from-virus/

And some troubling statistics that you can also downplay, if you wish:

[Osos1]

Originally Posted by Mike Magee

They are beyond caring about it.


You're looking at a little detail. No surprise. Not everyone is capable of seeing the big picture.

Ever notice how some out there seem to always gravitate towards Doomsday predictions? Then there are others who will use any reason to criticize the Administraton.