Consensus on trailers being available after covid - Fiberglass RV
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Old 08-17-2020, 04:20 PM   #1
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Consensus on trailers being available after covid

I've been reading posts on facebook, I joined several trailer groups there, that there will be many trailers coming up for sale in the future when the covid goes away and things get back to normal.
What do you all think about that?
I want a good used trailer, but should I wait?
If I find one I like, I'll buy it now, but it's slim pickings
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Old 08-17-2020, 04:54 PM   #2
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I think people that can predict the future should buy lottery tickets, or invest in stock options.

Since I have never met anyone that can predict the future, I don't give ANY credence to people that make such predictions. If you believe them, then short some RV company stocks and make a lot of money if they are right.
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Old 08-17-2020, 04:55 PM   #3
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There's a pretty good chance. Not sure how many fiberglass trailer impulse buys are happening, but plenty of stick-built.

I feel the same way about housing. In Montana, out-of-state people are buying up property, sight-unseen, at a crazy rate. So is now the time to grab something before it's all gone and prices skyrocket? Or will the world go back to normal, and though some percentage will certainly go through with their plans to move here or keep a second home here, there may be a glut of houses on the market as people realize they may have overreacted...

I don't have a crystal ball. For the time being, we're in this for the long haul. If you find a trailer that fits your needs and wants, buy it.
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Old 08-17-2020, 05:40 PM   #4
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My guess is that it is the stick built campers that most people are buying. Walk into the dealer, pick one out, and get financed right there. I get ads from Camping World showing trailers for "Only $149 per month" and other similar dollar amounts. Of course they don't mention for how many years the payments are. Probably the trailers will be junk by the time it's paid for. People will eventually figure out they are making a monthly payment on a camper that gets little use and will sell at a loss just to get rid of it.
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Old 08-17-2020, 05:51 PM   #5
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I walk down the lone of boats at Bass Pro and look at the advertised payments of some super low amount and then look at the finance terms of 144 months!
WOW
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Old 08-17-2020, 07:56 PM   #6
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I don't have any more insight into this than anyone else, but I've been itching to share my thoughts (wife isn't particularly interested).

Humans tend to have relatively short memories, so I think this widespread interest in camping and the outdoors will be a fashion, not a style. Part of that is me hoping that my hobby since childhood isn't overrun by new blood.
We're also impulsive, and I would wager that most of the people buying RVs right now haven't thought through the medium or long term implications of the purchase. You're paying insurance, storage fees, maintenance and repair costs, camping fees, extra gas money, more wear and tear on your TV...

I expect that as things return to normal over the next one to two years, we'll see travel incentives to get people back to their old vacationing ways, and people will be itching to get back to their normal weekend routines. Some will recognize what a burden their RV has become and get rid of it. Most will hang onto their RVs for a few seasons, for the same reason your closet is full of clothes that you're "going to wear again someday." So I predict an influx of used trailers, but not a flood.

With used molded FG trailers, I doubt you will see anything out of the ordinary. Most of the impulsive types I mentioned aren't looking at molded FG. Doesn't have the "wow" factor of a bumper pull sticky that looks like a second home, or the "take it all on the road" ability of a Class A. Having watched the used market for molded FG for three years now, I can tell you there's not a noticeable difference in how fast they are selling this summer vs last and the one before. Volume is down, and prices are inflated, but I would not be surprised to see the current price levels stick.

None of that should stop you from buying a trailer today, if you can find it. Even if the used market is flooded in five years, three years, one year...what did you gain by waiting? Nothing. You lost five years, or three years, or one year of enjoying the trailer. What premium do you put on your time?
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Old 08-17-2020, 10:27 PM   #7
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I am not sure the effects of the pandemic will be over anytime in the next few years. I never would have predicted the situation we are in, much less how it will or will not resolve. The financial impact on buyers of anything will be enormous. How that relates to RV purchasing is unknown. If you want a fiberglass trailer, and know you want to enjoy camping in one, find one you like and buy it. Don’t overpay, you will be a happy camper.
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Old 08-18-2020, 04:24 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thrifty bill View Post
I think people that can predict the future should buy lottery tickets, or invest in stock options.

Since I have never met anyone that can predict the future, I don't give ANY credence to people that make such predictions. If you believe them, then short some RV company stocks and make a lot of money if they are right.
Bill, You may be correct about prediction. However, there is a difference between prediction (this will happen) and speculation (I suspect this will happen). Speculation is often based on past experiences of observation. I am old enough to remember the hula hoop. Big craze in its day; everyone had to have one. Or the Cabbage Patch dolls. One year people were paying hundreds of dollars so that they could give their kid(s) the most wanted item for Christmas. How often do you hear about hula hoops and Cabbage Patch Kids now? My speculation is in line with most of the people who have posted here, that the surge in RV sales is likely a passing fad and that many (not all) of the newbie RVers will draw a conclusion that the RV was not really a good choice, and will put it up for sale. I would also speculate that this will result in a short term economic disaster in Indiana when the market is flooded. I say short term because it may depress the construction of new units for 3 or 4 years until the surplus of these poorly made stickies start self destructing and the industry can get back to slapping them together again. Given human behavior, and I am not predicting or speculating, I know for a fact (from personal observation and experience) that RVing is not for everyone. Remember the adage that the second happiest day in your life was the day you bought your boat? And the happiest day in your life........
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Old 08-18-2020, 04:41 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thrifty bill View Post
I think people that can predict the future should buy lottery tickets, or invest in stock options.

Since I have never met anyone that can predict the future, I don't give ANY credence to people that make such predictions. If you believe them, then short some RV company stocks and make a lot of money if they are right.
I bought scratch off lottery ticket. Seems I can't predict the future.
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Old 08-18-2020, 06:24 AM   #10
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Molded fiberglass trailers are far less subject to the market swings of conventional RVs due to limited supply. If you're looking for a molded trailer, I doubt much is to be gained by waiting. As someone already said, it you see the one you want at a fair price, buy it.

On the other hand, expect occasional gouging due to current high demand. Do your homework and determine a fair price range. Then it’s like fishing: wait patiently and react quickly.

We stayed at a KOA a couple of weeks ago with 200 sites, all full. Five Cruise America rentals and maybe half a dozen conventional RVs with dealer tags, definitely more than you’d normally expect. At least fifteen Class B’s of all sorts. That segment seems to be especially popular right now. Only one other molded trailer, but 2 in 200 is typical. Most interesting was a group of four vintage VW campers, a mini-rally.
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Old 08-18-2020, 08:10 AM   #11
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This all assumes that life goes back to normal, but that is a reasonable assumption...

I agree with Carl in that some, but not all will get over the RV fad and move on. But just like with people flooding MT, it’s now on the map for far more people than before. This is one of those catalyzing events that speed up population growth out here.

Many live in areas already blown up, busy with people, and that’s how it’s been for decades. Here, I’m watching it happen. All the quiet spots I often had to myself are now rarely quiet. More often they are over-full. This is dispersed camping, where people used to leave space so everyone could have an outdoor experience. Probably partly because of trailers, people seem content now to pile on top of each other. You find a nice site, a couple hundred yards from the next established site, and figure you’re good! Then at 9pm Friday night some trailer rolls in and sets up shop 20 yards away in a spot that isn’t even a spot, but they’re going to be in their camper all weekend anyway so why should they care! I was camped in the last official spot (fire ring, parking, obviously a camp spot) at the end of a two-track road this weekend, figuring great, one group 100 yards away, and no one on the other side, just a dirt pit at the end of the road, where the developed campground down the road gets its road fill from. It was at least 6” deep of white, powdery dirt (it’s been really dry here). I assumed no one would camp there...Friday afternoon, three trailers pull in. Before they’re even disconnected from their tow vehicles, the generators are running...

Lately I’m feeling pretty pessimistic about certain things. For those who grow up with this as normal, well, this is normal. For those of us who remember the outdoors being quiet, having a lakeside camp spot in the woods with no one else around...it’s frustrating.

The feeling I’m having lately for how I define my outdoor experience in my adulthood: the end of solitude.

Ok, happy thoughts the rest of today.
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Old 08-18-2020, 09:33 AM   #12
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I can make predictions....

I called a fortune teller, she said i was going to win a million dollars and quit my job.

So today i quit my job, i am halfway there!,
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Old 08-18-2020, 09:34 AM   #13
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Local trailer dealer sold 400 trailers in June, at their two locations around Portland. Larges month ever. They are building a new repair facility. New building = kiss of death in my book, usually because it takes a business so long to decide to do that, that construction takes place late in the business cycle. I've seen this a lot. This time might be different.
Visited Camping World yesterday. 80% of their lot is empty.
Up in the mountains, rangers I spoke with are having problems with people camping in day-use areas and leaving trash, in areas that never had a past problem.
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Old 08-18-2020, 09:48 AM   #14
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My wife and I bought our 17' Casita in 2000 and have been out every summer traveling the mountain west (mostly Colorado state parks which are very nice with electric hookups and widely spaced campsites). Only problem we have is that many need to be booked at least three months ahead. The camp rangers tell us that many of the first timers return year after year (mostly from Texas and southern states) for extended stays. I would not bet on a surplus of fiberglass campers next year. Several of the owners of large stick builts I have visited with plan on selling and downsizing since the large outfits are expensive to maintain and store. My advice is to find something you like and can afford and go for it. You are not getting any younger and neither am I!
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Old 08-18-2020, 10:14 AM   #15
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Owning a camper is work...

Most virgin camper owners will sell in a few years because it takes a lot of work to keep it running. And a lot of work to actually live in it. And most folks lack any skills. Maintenance is about equal to owning another house merged with another car... toilet, sink, drains, heater, a/c, refrigerator, lights, tires, spare tire, bearings, roof leaks, door latches, mold, roaches, ants, insurance, generator, inspections, battery, vent fans, wiring, fuses, window blinds, carpet, couches, tables, thermostats, smoke alarms, propane tanks, septic tank, valves, pumps, inverters, and more. Airplanes and resort hotels are much less work.
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Old 08-18-2020, 10:21 AM   #16
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IF you are looking for a "Sticky" built trailer, Airstream or other none fiberglass built trailer I suggest you wait. With almost 1.5 MM new RV's delivered over the last 3 years there are LOT'S of newbies who think the RV lifestyle is for them in a world gone crazy with COVID Madness and other things happening within our country will be selling very soon.

When the reality of RV payments and no time to enjoy that new RV really takes hold next Summer there will be LOT'S of sticky built trailers and other RV's hitting the market with inflated asking prices as these sellers "Try" to lessen their losses on a bad RV purchase.

The BIG question will be how long will it take for all these RV seller's to realize they are not going to git anywhere near their money back by selling their RV. Their only real decision they are need to make is HOW BIG A CHECK are they willing to write to git rid of that BAD RV purchase decision and all costs associated with with owning had to have RV!

Fiberglass trailers on the other hand are such small niche market in the RV world. Long lead times for ordering were still the norm up to the time of COVID Madness therefore I believe that the amount of USED fiberglass trailers for sale will be no different next Summer than now. If you find a good USED fiberglass trailer now BUY IT! A used fiberglass trailer won't be any cheaper next year or the year after in my opinion.
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Old 08-22-2020, 11:27 AM   #17
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Very likely. And I think the same might be true for fiberglass trailers, but to a lesser degree. I suspect there will be some pretty good deals out there when the market becomes flooded with used rv's. But through it all, we will just hang onto and enjoy our Bigfoot.
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Old 08-22-2020, 12:27 PM   #18
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Financing a boat or trailer

Quote:
finance terms of 144 months

They put it in months because most people don't do the Math-that's 12 YEARS! Who keeps a pleasure boat that long?
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Old 08-22-2020, 01:55 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by CPW View Post
Bill, You may be correct about prediction. However, there is a difference between prediction (this will happen) and speculation (I suspect this will happen). Speculation is often based on past experiences of observation. I am old enough to remember the hula hoop. Big craze in its day; everyone had to have one. Or the Cabbage Patch dolls. One year people were paying hundreds of dollars so that they could give their kid(s) the most wanted item for Christmas. How often do you hear about hula hoops and Cabbage Patch Kids now? My speculation is in line with most of the people who have posted here, that the surge in RV sales is likely a passing fad and that many (not all) of the newbie RVers will draw a conclusion that the RV was not really a good choice, and will put it up for sale. I would also speculate that this will result in a short term economic disaster in Indiana when the market is flooded. I say short term because it may depress the construction of new units for 3 or 4 years until the surplus of these poorly made stickies start self destructing and the industry can get back to slapping them together again. Given human behavior, and I am not predicting or speculating, I know for a fact (from personal observation and experience) that RVing is not for everyone. Remember the adage that the second happiest day in your life was the day you bought your boat? And the happiest day in your life........

Forecasting at it's simplest is a two stage process. 1: project the future based on the past. 2: answer the question "what are the forces at work to make step 1 wrong".
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Old 08-22-2020, 03:36 PM   #20
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The Future?

I'd definitely wait until after the election. It could be a game changer.

I do see a lot of money moving out of the cities. Not that many people have to decide to move from Boston and New York to have a dramatic affect om Maine real estate prices. People are bidding property up and buying sight unseen.

No predictions here but things seem to go in cycles. I just keep my eyes open for a good used fiberglass trailers. Newbies often by new because they are afraid of used or have too much money. Exodus people are unlikely to be in the used fiberglass trailer market.

It has never taken us more than a couple of months to find an RV.
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