The Really Big One

[honda03842]

Our son lives in the Pacific Northwest so I've been aware of the lurking potential disaster that exists there. As well I love geology and had an inkling of the magnitude of the potential disaster that will happen. The following article from the New Yorker Magazine is fairly graphic and well worth reading if you live any where on the Pacific coast.

The Earthquake That Will Devastate Seattle - The New Yorker

[cpaharley2008]

very interesting article, between that calamity and the Yellowstone eruption, the East or middle America may become an island....

[monB]

Middle America ha sthe New Madrid fault, so we'll be paddling too.

MonB

[honda03842]

Originally Posted by cpaharley2008

very interesting article, between that calamity and the Yellowstone eruption, the East or middle America may become an island....

Yellowstone is the order of every 600,000 years and the Cascade earthquake every 200 odd years. On top of the earthquake they also have the possibility of Mt. Rainer popping.

[frank_a]

I went to grad school in Pullman, WA. I will never forget May 18, 1980. The image of the black line on the horizon coming east across the state on a beautiful sunny day, turning day into night, is forever etched in my brain.

Mt. St. Helens...

[honda03842]

I've visited Mt St. Helens a number of time and the destruction was truly shocking. However when you compare it to the historical destruction of Yellowstone it pales.

We truly are relatively helpless against the destructive processes that shape our landscape.

[Bobbie Mayer]

I've read a lot about the potential for a Cascadia quake and resulting tsunami and the New Yorker article is overkill. Most of the Puget Sound region (where the population is) is unlikely to get anywhere near the effects suggested in the article. Tsunami here would be 1-2 meters, and with several hours warning. Much of the construction is new and would probably hold up.

The author also likely overestimates the likelihood. The Cascadia fault last ruptured 315 years ago. On average it goes every 500 years with intervals as small as 100 years and as large as 1000 years. So it is anyone's guess when it would next go. The concern now is that it is not moving in small quakes to relieve pressure- but nobody knows if it did before the other major ruptures. But emphasize that "nobody knows". Yes, it could be tomorrow. Likely? Nobody knows.

Not that I think we shouldn't be prepared, because likely we would have a long period of recovery, and need to be self-sufficient for awhile, especially those of us outside of major population areas (which would be assisted first). Where I am I am more concerned with the tsunami so want to be prepared with a backpack that I can climb the hill with- assuming roads are damaged, otherwise the trailer and car go. Food, water, prescription meds, shelter. If it hits tomorrow I'm not ready but in the near future I plan to be.

[Bobbie Mayer]

A couple of really good books on the subject are "The Next Tsunami, Living on a Restless coast" and "Full Rip 9". They give a lot of the science and useful information to boot.

[bullfrogeh]

Thank goodness, we just replaced the axle, to absorb the shock wave - - Now to plug any leaks, to make sure the Boler floats. But, perhaps we'll be relatively secure, living mid-way between the Allantic and Pacific coasts - as long as those pesky glaciers, don't slide south, over the 'shield' again. We will remember to take our life-jackets, when camping to either east or west coasts, and will keep the tires inflated to ensure maximum buoyancy. - - - LOL (Any recommendations for an appropriate 'outboard' ?)

[monB]

Originally Posted by bullfrogeh

... (Any recommendations for an appropriate 'outboard' ?)

Duck on a leash?

monB

[Uplander]

I was stationed in the Phillippines in the 1960s and experienced several earthquakes...not a very pleasant experience....then there was that volcano.......
Clark Air Base, Phillippines once the largest Air Base on earth is now just a memory...buried under volcanic ash...the U.S. Service members had only minutes to evacuate as the entire region was being buried in the rain of volcanic ash....no warning at all !!!......the Pacific Northwest will never know what hit them when the big one does come! The reality is there is nothing you can do to avoid "The Big One" other than being someplace else and away from the seashore on high ground.

Unlike global warming this is real.

[floyd]

Kinda puts a perspective on global warming!
Tell all the rotund on the left coast to tread lightly.

But seriously, the article was well written and more than a bit unnerving.

[slowpat]

I live in the midst of the three volcanoes. The latest danger from Rainier is not the "popping of the top". It is having the NW side give way. That part of the volcano is the weakest--rock is degraded by the acidic environment, and that part faces the Puget Sound area.


Our area has had lahars run down the Cowlitz River in past times. A neighbor told me if I see him tearing up the hill, to follow...but it sounds like the other side will go.


I shall try to be home when "the big one" hits. It's much safer here and our community is well practiced in emergencies what with the couple of hundred year floods that happened in the last 20 years. I think most of us have emergency gear stashed, and it also being a timber community, we have lots of equipment and know how, as long as the fuel supply holds up.


On the volcanic topic, if you dig deep enough you'll find layers of pumice from each big past eruption of a nearby volcano. It's interesting..


I have been discouraged by the growth in the beach areas, but that won't be a problem someday...an evil thought, but I can't help it.

[Evergreengirl]

Interesting article, Norm. I shouldn't have read it right now though as we are packing the trailer to head to the big Oregon Gathering in Bandon right at this moment! Every time we head to the beach I do think about the hazards and actually we try to avoid camping on low ground on the coast as much as possible (our friends think we're paranoid). At Bandon I do know where the high ground is. Being able to get to it in the dark or from out at the beach is another matter. Well, we've chosen to live in earthquake country and so all we can do is be prepared as much as possible and hope the Big One doesn't hit when we're in some really vulnerable place. I do believe most people living in the PNW are woefully unprepared for a disaster of this magnitude and of course the political will to do anything about the situation is simply not there. As long as governments allow people to keep building houses, businesses, etc. on low lying coastal areas the potential death toll will keep rising.

[honda03842]

Kathy,

Certainly one can't stop living but one can be aware and in some measure prepared. I really don't fear these kinds of events but certainly want to know the possibilities. (In Bandon I like the raspberry squares at the little bakery on a street parallel to the dock area.)

I really like Oregon's coast and the fact that the state controls so much of the coast. One of my sister-in-laws is a Mormon and she is really prepared.. I believe the Mormons have upped the prepared requirement from one to two years of supplies (food mostly). As well it's really nice that the Mormons have an extended group that are similarly prepared.

Ginny and I have a considerable amount of long term food on hand but the problem becomes friends and relatives. It is sensible to be prepared because in general people don't have a lot of food in their homes and minimal ways to prepare it. We were gifted with a super million gallon water filter that takes care of one of the key elements needed.

On the sense of preparedness and not politics, people in Greece have been in a precarious situation with their banking system virtually shutting down. Our mattress has become more comfortable now that we stuffed it with money...just kidding.

[redbarron55]

"On the sense of preparedness and not politics, people in Greece have been in a precarious situation with their banking system virtually shutting down. Our mattress has become more comfortable now that we stuffed it with money...just kidding."

All of the pennies make mine very uncomfortable!

[honda03842]

Originally Posted by cpaharley2008

very interesting article, between that calamity and the Yellowstone eruption, the East or middle America may become an island....

A fact for the day.

The center of the country was an ocean, the Western Interior Seaway, from the Arctic, through Canada to the present Gulf of Mexico in relatively recent geological times.

The evaporation of this sea and probably similar seas resulted in the great salt mines under the lakes and Michigan. (Detroit has one salt mine with a 100 miles of underground roads.)

Things do change.