What percent of new RV sales are molded fiberglass trailers? - Fiberglass RV
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Old 06-26-2018, 06:41 PM   #1
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What percent of new RV sales are molded fiberglass trailers?

Hi All,

Quick question. Does anyone have any data showing what percent of annual new RV sales are from molded fiberglass trailers? Given that Thor and Forest River control over 80% of the RV market with new sales, I am guessing that new egg camper sales only make a very small percentage of annual RV sales. There are currently over 500,000 RV sales annually. How many new egg campers are sold each year? My guess would be less than 1% to no more than 2%. Does anyone have any data that indicates what percent of RV sales are from our egg campers?

Thanks,

Dean
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Old 06-26-2018, 07:31 PM   #2
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Just total guess Dean, I'd say, .00001% .
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Old 06-26-2018, 07:55 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by DeanCHS1980 View Post
Hi All,

Quick question. Does anyone have any data showing what percent of annual new RV sales are from molded fiberglass trailers? Given that Thor and Forest River control over 80% of the RV market with new sales, I am guessing that new egg camper sales only make a very small percentage of annual RV sales. There are currently over 500,000 RV sales annually. How many new egg campers are sold each year? My guess would be less than 1% to no more than 2%. Does anyone have any data that indicates what percent of RV sales are from our egg campers?

Thanks,

Dean

500,000/year is about 10,000/week.

Casita sell about 20/week
Add in all the others and thats probably less than 200/week?

So thats less than 2%?
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:22 PM   #4
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Just total guess Dean, I'd say, .00001% .
Dave,

LOL! It is definitely a drop in bucket compared to the RV market.

I hope all is well with you.

Take care,

Dean
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:24 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by widgetwizard View Post
500,000/year is about 10,000/week.

Casita sell about 20/week
Add in all the others and thats probably less than 200/week?

So thats less than 2%?
Hi Jim,

That seems to be consistent with what I am hearing. Your logic makes sense.

Happy Camping,

Dean
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Old 06-27-2018, 07:03 AM   #6
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Casita, 800 (edited). Scamp, 500. Escape, 500 (guessing- anybody know?). All others combined, probably less than 2000.

5000/500,000 is 1%, so less than 1% of new RV's are all-molded fiberglass.

Given those numbers it's actually amazing you see any out there. I'm thinking their longevity and the likelihood that they get used more often than the average conventional RV means your odds of encountering one are actually a bit better than 1 in 100.
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Old 06-27-2018, 07:27 AM   #7
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Are you talking about NEW RV sales, or USED RV sales....maybe ALL RV sales? Where did the numbers come from, dealers, or factories?

I would like to know, on average, how many owners a single Scamp/Casita and the like go through in 25 years, compared to a sticky.

Mon
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Old 06-27-2018, 07:30 AM   #8
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Are you talking about NEW RV sales, or USED RV sales....maybe ALL RV sales? Where did the numbers come from, dealers, or factories?

I would like to know, on average, how many owners a single Scamp/Casita and the like go through in 25 years, compared to a sticky.

Mon

There are 25 yr old stickies out there?
Maybe in the desert.
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Old 06-27-2018, 08:25 AM   #9
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There are 25 yr old stickies out there?
Maybe in the desert.

In Alberta, nearly a desert, there are quite a few 40 year old sitckies. Usually in rough shape, but a good source of parts, (fridges, furnaces, and converters, even some windows).
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Old 06-27-2018, 12:20 PM   #10
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When I picked up my Casita from the plant in November, they said they built 16/week, up from 14/week a couple years before.
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Old 06-27-2018, 01:18 PM   #11
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In 2016, Casita said they produce 800 per year and Oliver said 85 to 100. A note accompanying our 2018 Escape calendar said they were going to gear up to two per day this year. That would be just over 500 a year if they are (presumably) referring to work days.

http://www.rvnews.com/article.php?id=1049

RVIA says the industry shipped 504,599 RV's in 2017. They don't publish how many went 'directly' into the shop, but many require service immediately after purchase, though appointment for repairs are actually often several months out. The problems appear to be due in large part to the massive increases in production (76% in five years) and the consequent difficulties at so many factories, including the parts suppliers.

https://www.rvia.org/business-indicators

My readings on the Airstream forum seem to indicate some broad acceptance of the notion that a new Airstream will often involve a year or two of repairs and de-bugging. Some even speak of the advantages associated with buying a two-year old trailer over a new one. Others pick their trailer up at the factory and then get repairs made before heading home. This actually seems to be a fairly broad practice which includes our molded trailers.

America's going RVing again and I guess I am part of the consequent problems, being that we just got started with travel trailers in this household a few years back.
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Old 06-27-2018, 02:31 PM   #12
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There's gotta be a big difference between how many RV's are built and how many are actually sold …. judging by all the inventory sitting on dealers lots.
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Old 06-27-2018, 02:38 PM   #13
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There's gotta be a big difference between how many RV's are built and how many are actually sold …. judging by all the inventory sitting on dealers lots.
Not really as every year they have making more of them. So once every RV dealer is full, where do the next ones produced go? Buying an RV can be an impulse buy so some dealers seem to like having a lot of inventory.
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Old 06-27-2018, 03:14 PM   #14
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I do see a lot of 2-3-4 year old 'new' RVs in the bigger lots. you don't see that in a car dealer, if they still have inventory when the next model year comes out, they discount it til it moves out. I did buy a new 1984 VW Rabbit Convertible in early 1985, the price was greatly slashed, and it was the only '84 of any type on that dealers lot. The car only had a 80 miles on it, which means it wasn't used that much as a demo (I've seen 'new' cars with 2000 or more miles).
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Old 07-02-2018, 12:58 PM   #15
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Cars don't change much most model years, RV's maybe less so. Both have major changes only periodically.

I would guess that financing dealer inventory has a big impact on inventory levels. Some rv dealers are better at business than others.

The key is inventory turnover. Using an extreme example, would you rather stock one trailer [Tesla] and sell it 12 times, or stock 12 trailers, and sell each one once? Reality may be in between, but the 1st situation is way more profitable, and allows for lower prices. Factory direct sales of RVs is more like the 1st instance. Tesla has also had showrooms with 1 or 2 models.

Banks probably finance much of dealers' inventory. I agree, RVs are an impulse buy. That usually requires inventory.

By the way the production estimates posted previously sound about right.
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Old 07-03-2018, 04:04 PM   #16
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According to RVIA (Recreational Vehicle Industry Association) the total 2017 SHIPMENTS of RV's by OEM manufacturer's to dealers and/or direct customers was 513,000 units. There is no reference in this SHIPMENT number if this includes shipments by NONE RVIA MEMBER OEM RV manufacturer's. Some of the fiberglass egg manufacturer's and many small cottage industry RV manufacturer's are not members of RVIA and as such their RV shipments may not be included in the annual RV shipment number reported by RVIA.

RVIA "Estimates" 2018 SHIPMENTS of RV's by OEM manufacturer's to dealers and/or direct customer's will be OVER 550,000 units.

Why is this important?

Notice how RVIA reports RV sales. The sales RVIA reports are OEM manufacturer RV SHIPMENTS of RV's not the actual RETAIL sales of these same RV units.

Depending upon the dealer and the manufacturer the "Floor Plan" for RV dealer inventory many times is on the manufacturer's dime for a period of time from 0-6 months as an example. With floor plan money from private lender's running 4% to 10% at this time is gets real expensive real fast for a dealer holding a large inventory of many different brands of RV's on their dime therefore that's why most OEM manufacturer's will offer floor plan incentives to their dealer's to get their product on the dealer's lot for customer's to see, cuddle and most importantly PURCHASE!!!

Many of you "Oldtimer's" may remember when a 1961 model RV trailer might not be sold new off a dealer's lot to the first retail customer until 1963 and therefore the original title issued by the state in which the customer resided would say the trailer was a 1963 model as that's when the trailer was SOLD when in actuality the trailer was a 1961 model manufactured during the 1961 production model year. That was when states issued the first title paperwork for a RV's particularly trailer's and before the OEM manufacturer's were recognized by most states as legal OEM manufacturer's with the ability to issue a Manufacture's Statement of Origin (MSO) for that trailer as they do now. NOW customer's know for sure when they are purchasing an older model units.

"I" think the real story of the modern day fantastic RV industry sales numbers will be told this Fall when the RV dealer's to whom the OEM's are sending all this RV inventory will STOP accepting additional inventory as they already have a YARD FULL of unsold RV's and maybe the "Free Floorplan" period on that inventory they alreay have might be coming to an end. If so why would I want to stick my head out further for more inventory that I don't have to pay for NOW however I might have to in the near future IF I can't sell what I already got? The OEM manufacturer's are "Crankin Em Out the Door" right now and these units have to go someplace. That someplace is their DEALER'S SALES LOT.

Just like in the past the Elkhart based OEM's will once again get into financial trouble when the economy slows down in 2019 however RETAIL SALES of RV's will have slowed down 6+ months earlier in the Fall of 2018.

Houston We Have A Problem!

Most of the Fiberglass OEM trailer manufacturer's will realize the market change long before the behemoth's in Elkhart as the small Fiberglass trailer manufacturer's build their product based upon actual retail SALES and rarely if ever build units for inventory.

Since retail RV sales ALWAYS "Crater" long before the big Elkhart IN based OEM's TURN OFF the production spigot of RV's that's when the OEM's are left with a bunch of inventory sitting around Elkhart IN with NO WHERE TO GO even when they are offered "Free To Good Home" for a period of time!

2019 should prove to be an interesting time to watch and see what happen's in the RV industry!
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Old 07-03-2018, 04:39 PM   #17
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I like the fact that there are so few of us. We're "special". They're not cranking them out in a few hours like those Jayco's, I know that much. And the eggs will still be around and in good use when most stickies are in a scrapyard.
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Old 07-03-2018, 04:45 PM   #18
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Thanks for clarifying that statistic, Mike, and it makes a lot of sense.

There are at least two large lots filled with several hundred RV's in our small mountain town, which probably doesn't see 50 actual new RV sales in a good year. Used to be one or two small, seasonal lots with maybe 10-12 units each. I couldn't understand why they had so many stocked in such a small town this year. It makes more sense when I realize they aren't really expecting to sell them. Big RV dealers from the city have leased lots to store excess inventory. If they happen to make a few sales along the way, so much the better.

I'm sure their salespeople from Phoenix don't mind rotating out of the triple digit heat to do a few shifts at the cool mountain lot, either.

Kind of a crazy business! Lots of signs it is saturated at this point.
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Old 07-04-2018, 01:08 PM   #19
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Fact of the matter is as long as the fiberglass group of RVs lack a true dealer and service network in the U.S.A. The sales of fiberglass trailers will be fractional at best.

American RV shoppers “buy what they see” and chances are they never see
any fiberglass trailers on U.S. dealer’s lots.

For the most part the fiberglass trailer segment of the RV market lacks any real marketing plan and that is very SAD !

Happy Camping in the best kept secret in the travel trailer market !

As for the current RV market....sales are up every month for the last year or more.....monthly shipments from Indiana factories are up double digits month after month.
If you want the pulse of the RV market subscribe to the excellent weekly report (FREE!) from RV travel.com....most informative thing you can read for RV industry news (other than fiberglassrv.com). !!!

The huge sales volume in new RVs is having a major impact on campsite availability.....next time you roll into a campground you better have an advanced reservation or you campsite just might be a Walmart parking lot !!
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Old 07-04-2018, 01:30 PM   #20
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anecdote: we were in Death Valley, at Panamint Springs in our Casita. as always, we spent most of our time outside enjoying the breathtaking views. for the week we were there, a series of big trailers and class A's were in the space next to us. twice, the owner of the giant stickies, an older retired guy both times, would come over and chat and admire the Casita... In both cases, the owners wife hardly ever left the interior of the behemoth, spending her days watching TV or something inside.


Panamint Springs, March 2017
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